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May 2, 2013

Chasing Omaha Regional Projections – 5/2/2013

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Every week, our co-founder and publisher, Craig Amick, will release his regional projections. These projections are a snap-shot of what the bracket might look like if it were released today based on the criteria that the NCAA Tournament Committee uses to build the field of 64 in June. These projections are not a prediction of what the bracket will look like in June, so every week we will get closer and closer to the final picture.

As we get closer to the end of the season, this projection will come at the beginning of the weeks, and multiple times in the final week.

The national seeds have a number next to them in parenthesis and the projected super regional match-ups are side-by-side. Projected conference champions are in italics.

Please post any questions or comments below or send a tweet to Craig at @craigamick_co.

 

Last Four In:  Arizona, Oklahoma State, UC Irvine, Illinois

First Four Out:  Florida Atlantic, Coastal Carolina, Auburn, Baylor

 

Chapel Hill Regional Starkville Regional
1 North Carolina (1) 1 Mississippi State
2 UNC-Wilmington 2 Miami (Fla)
3 Western Carolina 3 Troy
4 Columbia 4 Jacksonville State
Eugene Regional Clemson Regional
1 Oregon (8) 1 Clemson
2 Kansas State 2 Florida
3 UC Irvine 3 Florida Atlantic
4 Holy Cross 4 Southern Mississippi
Charlottesville Regional Bloomington Regional
1 Virginia (4) 1 Indiana
2 Mercer 2 Kentucky
3 Campbell 3 Oklahoma State
4 Bryant 4 Tennessee Tech
Corvallis Regional Tempe Regional
1 Oregon State (5) 1 Arizona State
2 Alabama 2 Oklahoma
3 Illinois 3 New Mexico
4 Gonzaga 4 Missouri State
Baton Rouge Regional Los Angeles Regional
1 LSU (3) 1 UCLA
2 Louisiana-Lafayette 2 Louisville
3 Lamar 3 Cal Poly
4 Buffalo 4 Delaware State
Fullerton Regional Columbia Regional
1 Cal State Fullerton (6) 1 South Carolina
2 Rice 2 Virginia Tech
3 Arizona 3 Central Arkansas
4 Cal State Bakersfield 4 Wisconsin-Milwaukee
Nashville Regional Tallahassee Regional
1 Vanderbilt (2) 1 Florida State
2 Notre Dame 2 South Alabama
3 Austin Peay 3 North Florida
4 Rider 4 South Dakota State
Raleigh Regional Oxford Regional
1 North Carolina State (7) 1 Mississippi
2 Arkansas 2 Georgia Tech
3 Michigan State 3 South Florida
4 St. Louis 4 Maine

 



About the Author

Craig Amick
Co-Founder / Media Director / Big 12 Writer, Read Full Bio »




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15 Comments


  1. Patrick Blackwood

    Do you think if Alabama goes 5-5 in the last 10 games (3 @miss St, home vs Troy, 3@home vs Missouri and 3 @Vandy) they will b safely in a regional?


  2. How do you have Illinois getting in? Doesn't make sense to me. No shot at winning the conference nor the B1G tourny. Minnesota or Ohio state seem like more logical projections if yo regiving the Big ten 3 teams getting in

    How do you have Illinois getting in? Doesn’t make sense to me. No shot at winning the conference nor the B1G tourny. Minnesota or Ohio state seem like more logical projections if you have 3 big ten teams getting a bid. And although Ohio state lost head to head to Minnesota, they will have a much higher RPI after games with Georgia tech, Louisville, Oregon, and Indiana in the next two weeks.


    • The Big 10 is a tough study this year. I think there’s a chance only two get in, which would be Indiana and Michigan State. I also think there’s a chance that four get in. This week, I have Illinois as my last team in due to RPI. I think it’s very possible that either Ohio State or Minnesota could get in with good performances down the stretch. Remember, with my projections, I’m taking a snapshot of what it would look like today, without trying to predict future outcomes.


  3. Aaron

    I understand that USD has struggled as of late, but their RPI is still around 50, and they’re 26-18 overall. Not even in your last 4 out? What do they have to do to make it in the field? Win their last 2 WCC series?


  4. How sick is it that you (and I) predict Southern Miss to win the C-USA tourney? The flipside is that USM will be a 4-seed and Rice (highly overrated, IMO) will be a 2-seed.


  5. Zach Prado

    What do you think about USF making a run in the regionals? They have won 16 of last 17 and they seem to be playing with a chip on the shoulder and their bullpen has been lights out, winning so many close and extra inning games.


    • USF has certainly been a good surprise this year. Not sure they’ll have much of a chance in a regional, though. They’ll be in with an ACC or SEC team and those conferences (with the Pac 12) are just heads and shoulders above everyone else this year.


  6. Larry Bobowski

    Do you give Seton Hall any kind of shot?
    They started 0-9 with a lot of one-run losses, including one to North Carolina, and are now 30-16.

    How do you think that RPI in the low 40s stacks up? I like the fact that as a Northeastern team, they made a mid-season trip to Houston and took 2 out 3. Not that Houston is tremendous, but they’ve obviously made an effort to play a good schedule coming from a cold-weather region. (North Carolina, San Diego State, San Diego, Pepperdine, Houston in addition to the best teams in the Big East).


  7. David

    I can’t find a SWAC team. Who are you projecting from that conference? Alabama State, Jackson State?


  8. Jey Jones

    I’m curious about your ongoing pick of Delaware State as the MEAC rep. I understand they have the best overall conference record, but look at who they’ve played, including the MEAC Northern Div. (with the other 3 teams not even sniffing .500).

    Wouldn’t Bethune-Cookman (7-consecutive titles) or Savannah State be a more likely bid?



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